Forecast for the week by
Dow Jones Newswires
This week, the
Euro is
likely to show limited growth against the U.S. currency, although restrained trading
activity in connection with the celebration of Thanksgiving in the United States may not
allow a single currency to break the mark 1,50 dollars U.S..
According to
Brian Kim, currency strategist at UBS, the situation on the market will help ensure that
both the Euro and the dollar will continue
to trade in ranges in which they were in recent times.
"The
sale, likely to take place unevenly, since the number of participants is small, so that
liquidity appears to be lower than usual, -" Kim said. - These will come out, but
they are unlikely to dramatically change the situation. "
On Thursday,
financial markets in the U.S. will be closed on Thanksgiving Day. It is expected that on Friday activity in
the currency market will be weak, as many investors prefer to hold long weekend, with
markets in Singapore and some other Asian countries on Friday also will be closed. On Monday on the occasion is not how
markets work in Japan.
According to Andrew Shaver, a technical
currency strategist at BNP Paribas in New York this week, the euro can get some support,
but it is not enough to break through the psychologically important level 1,50 dollars.
Euro / dollar, as expected, will be traded
in the range 1,4725-1,4950, and the pair dollar / Japanese yen - in the range 88,30-89,45,
predicts Shaver.
Euro will be very difficult to increase
again above 1.50 dollars, taking into account the slight decrease in U.S. stock indices
and prices of some commodities, "- said Shaver.
On Friday, the euro / dollar fell to 1.4800
minimum of two weeks before returning part of the lost positions in the New York session.
The demand for more lucrative currencies
and other risky assets weakened late last week because of renewed concerns about the pace
of recovery in the world economy. Hatched signals, indicating that the
authorities of various countries are ready to take a tougher stance against restrictions
on capital flows and the volatility of exchange rates, also increased caution among
investors.
According to analysts, in conditions of low
liquidity and lack of news that could change the situation on the market, the currency
market can affect traders, who in this year's record profits earlier than usual.
"The market is already talking about
the end of the year, but usually long-term investors do not close your positions before
the third week of December," - said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at
BNY Mellon in New York.
A single European currency should rise, as
the current downtrend of the dollar will continue until the end of the year, he added.
"I expect that the willingness to take
risks this week will again return to the market", - said Woolfolk. Many of the signs that serve a barometer of
investor attitudes to risk, demonstrate the continuing propensity to purchase riskier
assets such as stocks, he adds.
According to analysts, although this week
in the U.S. leaves a number of economic data, they are unlikely to cause changes in the
currency market. Nonetheless, investors will pay attention
to go on Wednesday the data on personal spending and income for October, as well as the
second estimate of U.S. GDP for the 3rd quarter.
Minutes
of the meeting of the Operations Committee on the open market the U.S. Federal Reserve,
which also must go on Wednesday, will be scrutinized for indications on the future
direction of monetary policy and the U.S. economy.
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